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File:Effects of global warming, plotted against changes in global mean temperature.png


English: This diagram shows the effects of global warming, plotted against changes in global mean temperature (draft version for discussion on en:Talk:Effects of global warming#Burning embers diagram). It is largely based on reports by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (see links that follow for more detailed references). Physical, ecological, social, and "large-scale" impacts are plotted against global mean temperature increases (above the 1980-1999 level) from 0 to 5 degrees Celsius. Subtract 0.6 °C to measure impacts relative to pre-industrial temperatures. The arrows on the diagram show that impacts tend to become more pronounced for higher magnitudes of warming. Solid arrows indicate the impact is known with a high level of certainty, while dashed arrows indicate less certainty.

Physical impacts :

  • Sea level rise (high confidence) (0 to 5 °C)
  • Increased severity of extreme weather events (high confidence) (0 to 5 °C)
  • Ocean acidification (high confidence) (0 to 5 °C)
  • Global warming that is irreversible for several millennia (high confidence) (0 to 5 °C)

Ecological impacts:

  • 20-20% of species at risk of extinction (medium confidence) (2 to 3 °C)
  • further extinctions (medium confidence) (4 °C and above)

Social impacts:

  • Developing countries vulnerable to negative impacts (high confidence) (0 to 5 °C)
  • Mix of positive and negative impacts (high confidence) (0 to 5 °C)
  • Negative impacts more pronounced (high confidence) (0 to 5 °C)
  • adaptation to climate change increasingly difficult (high confidence) (0 to 5 °C)

Large-scale impacts:

  • Increased risk of large-scale impacts (medium confidence) (0 to 5 °C)
  • Partial deglaciation of Greenland and West Antarctic ice sheets adds 4-6 metres or more to sea level rise (medium confidence) (1 to 4 °C)
Date 9 November 2012
Source Own work
Author Enescot


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